CLIMRUN at 13th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM) “High Impact Weather: Working in Partnership to Reduce Risk”, Reading, UK 13/09/2013
New perspectives and products from the CLIM-RUN project: continuing and developing the engagement with Mediterranean stakeholders
The CLIM-RUN case studies provide a real-world and Mediterranean context for bringing together experts on the demand and supply side of climate services. They are essential to the CLIM-RUN objective of using iterative and bottom-up (i.e. stakeholder led) approaches for optimizing the two-way information transfer between climate experts and stakeholders – and focus on specific locations and sectors (such as tourism and renewable energy). Stakeholder involvement has been critical from the start of the project in March 2011, with an early series of targeted workshops used to define the framework for each case study as well as the needs of stakeholders. Following these workshops, the user needs were translated into specific requirements from climate observations and models and areas identified where additional modelling and analysis are required. The first set of new products and tools produced by the CLIM-RUN modelling and observational experts are presented in a series of short briefing notes and will be shown in the second round of CLIM-RUN stakeholder workshops that should be held for each of the case studies in Spring-Summer 2013 as an essential part of the fourth CLIM-RUN key stage: Consolidation and collective review/assessment. During these workshops the process of interaction between CLIM-RUN scientists and case-study stakeholders will be reviewed, as well as the utility of the products and information developed in CLIM-RUN. Review questions will include: How far have we got? How successful have we been? What are the remaining problems/gaps? How to sustain and extend the interactions? The process of planning for and running these second workshops will be outlined and emerging outcomes presented, focusing on common messages which are relevant for development of the CLIM-RUN protocol for providing improved climate services to stakeholders together with the identification of good practice and policy recommendations for climate services development. New perspectives from the iterative interaction with stakeholders, together with the new climate information based on the climate tools developed by the CLIM-RUN climate modelling community will be presented. We will also take advantage of the results of the next CLIM-RUN general assembly (Summer 2013) where the experiences from the second round workshops will be collected and discussed.
Authors: Clare Goodess, (University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit) , Norwich, UK, Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA, UTMEA-CLIM, Rome, Italy and the CLIM-RUN Climate Expert Team and Stakeholder Expert Team
During the first phase of EU-FP7 CLIMRUN project, wind speed has been identified as a key climate variable of interest for the case studies on energy that cover the Greater Mediterranean region involving Morocco, Spain and Cyprus. Most of the interest concerning wind modelling focuses on the very short-range (nowcasting) and on seasonal forecasts, because the largest part of the manageable risk is concentrated on these time-scales. However, the interaction with stakeholders, especially in the energy sector, has highlighted the need for more in depth understanding of wind modelling capacities at a longer time scale, which may contribute to both site evaluation in the absence of very accurate wind atlases and on the assessments of risks that may affect the return on investments on longer time scale. In this framework, climate experts involved in CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project are exploring the potential of seasonal to decadal climate forecast techniques (time-frame 2012-2040) and regional climate scenarios (time horizon 2040+) over the Mediterranean Region as a tool for assessing the impact of changes in climate patterns on the energy output of wind power plants. Subsequently, we will give here a brief overview of these techniques as well as first results related to wind projections for different sites across the Mediterranean Region. We will highlight that regional climate models have a large potential for enhancing the quality of climate projections in the presence of complex orography and in the proximity of coastal areas.
Authors: Sandro Calmanti and Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA, Italy), Melanie Davis (IC3, Spain), Peter Schmidt, (PIK, Germany)
Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios?
In this study we present an analysis of surface solar radiation from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) scenario simulations produced during the ENSEMBLES project in order to understand the relation between changes in atmospheric properties and variation of the energy produced by solar power plants. Several studies have recently pointed out the inability and the scarce accuracy of IPCC models in capturing the past decadal variability of Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) (Wild 2009, Wild et al 2010). Most of these works compare observed and estimated SSR for the last 6-7 decades and show that only half of the models are able to reproduce partially the observed decrease (global dimming) and the increase (global brightening) in SSR which occurred respectively in the time intervals 1950-1980 and 1990-2000. In the framework of EU FP7 CLIMRUN project, we focus on the Euro-Mediterranean area and we compare the SSR data for the period 1951-2000 in order to assess the error associated to the model ensemble. Furthermore we analyze the XXI century regional ENSEMBLES scenarios in order to quantify potential future changes of SSR. The preliminary results obtained so far confirm the findings of Wild et al. for the period 1950-2000. For the future, the analysis shows a positive linear trend over the Mediterranean region. On the other hand, most of the models predict a negative linear trend over Central Europe. We also discuss future energy strategies considering the variability of energy production from solar panels estimated by probabilistic climate change scenarios.
Authors: Marcello Petitta , Alessandro Dell’Aquila, Sandro Calmanti (ENEA, Italy) Mariapina Castelli (DICA, University of Trento, Italy, and Institute for applied remote sensing, EURAC, Bozen, Italy
Climate change and wildfire risk: the route from applied research to stakeholder services for the case study of Greece
One of the objectives in EU project CLIM-RUN is the analysis of the fire risk for regions in the Mediterranean where forest fires represent a major hazard at local scale and the provision of appropriate climate indices to estimate future changes especially designed for the needs of relevant stakeholders. The main case study region in the project is Greece. In order to investigate the future changes in fire risk in relation to the meteorological conditions in the Mediterranean, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is applied. FWI is a daily meteorologically-based index depending solely on daily noon measurements of dry-bulb temperature, air relative humidity, 10 m open wind speed and 24 h accumulated precipitation. An evaluation of the index is performed using fire and meteorological data, in order to examine whether FWI values can adequately reflect fire risk as judged by actual fire occurrence and area burnt. FWI is confirmed to be skilful in predicting fire occurrence and thresholds of elevated (FWI>15) and extreme (FWI>45) fire risk are established. Then, the research moves into the investigation of the impacts of climate change on fire risk, for two future time periods, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, compared to the control run period 1961-1990. Regional climate models out- put is used to provide input for the FWI system. The results indicate that the future projections suggest a general increase in fire risk over the domain of interest for the near-future period 2021-2050, while a very strong impact is projected for the end of the century (2071-2100). Through an iterative and bottom-up (i.e. stakeholder led) approach we move towards the provision of services to long term forest fire planners and policy makers providing a web-based application for long term fire risk and other fire related indices (time horizon up to 2050 and up to 2100) in collaboration with the Greek WWF office (http://www.meteo.noa.gr/oikoskopio). This web-based application is further refined and improved with the use of land cover data which can help identify the actual fire prone regions combining both the vegetation type and the meteorological fire risk.
Authors: C. Giannakopoulos, A. Karali, M. Hatzaki, A. Roussos (National Observatory of Athens, Inst. for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Athens, Greece), E. Korakaki (WWF Greece ), C.M. Goodess (Climatic Research Unit, Univ. of East Anglia, UK)