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CLIM-RUN IN the ECCA - European Climate Change Adaptation Conference - Hamburg, March, 18-20, 2013.


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WIND ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT: STATE-OF-THE ART WIND FORECASTING FROM 1 MONTH - 30 YEARS


Throughout the life of a wind energy project, it is currently unknown how much the climate could vary from one month, season, year or decade to the next. An assumption is therefore made that long-term wind resource availability is constant. The risk that future wind resources could be significantly different over space and time is currently not assessed, nor have tools been made available to deal with this risk. This uncertainty affects investment and operations for wind projects and the grid network. State-of-the-art climate science and technology can now seamlessly predict, in a probabilistic way, the variability of wind resources over near-future timescales from 1 month to 30 years (known as sub-seasonal to decadal climate forecasts). Such wind forecasts have recently shown useful levels of skill at regional scales. This research aims to understand and manage the risk of climate variability on wind resource assessments, across the complete life of a wind energy project. In turn, this can generate innovative business opportunities, via the development of an operative climate forecasting service for longterm wind resources, which builds upon existing shortterm weather forecasting services.


Authors: Melanie Davis - IC3, Fabian Lienert - IC3, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes - IC3, ICREA, Peter Schmidt . PIK