CLIM-RUN in European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Vienna | Austria | 07 – 12 April 2013
According to the World Wind Energy Association the total wind generation capacity worldwide has come close to cover 3% of the world's electricity demand in 2011. Thanks to the enormous resource potential and the relatively low costs of construction and maintenance of wind power plants, the wind energy sector will remain one of the most attractive renewable energy investment options. Studies reveal that climate variability and change pose a new challenge to the entire renewable energy sector, and in particular for wind energy. Stakeholders in the wind energy sector mainly use, if available, site-specific historical climate information to assess wind resources at a given project site. So far, this is the only source of information that investors (e.g., banks) are keen to accept for decisions concerning the financing of wind energy projects. However, one possible wind energy risk at the seasonal scale is the volatility of earnings from year to year investment. The most significant risk is therefore that not enough units of energy (or megawatt hours) can be generated from the project to capture energy sales to pay down debt in any given quarter or year. On the longer time scale the risk is that a project’s energy yields fall short of their estimated levels, resulting in revenues that consistently come in below their projection, over the life of the project. The nature of the risk exposure determines considerable interest in wind scenarios, as a potential component of both the planning and operational phase of a renewable energy project. Fundamentally, by using climate projections, the assumption of stationary wind regimes can be compared to other scenarios where large scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns may affect local wind regimes. In the framework of CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project, climate experts are exploring the potential of seasonal to decadal climate forecast techniques (time-frame 2012-2040) and regional climate scenarios (time horizon 2040+) over the Mediterranean Region as a tool for assessing the impact of changes in climate patterns on the energy output of wind power plants. Subsequently, we will give here a brief overview of these techniques as well as first results related to wind projections for different sites across the Mediterranean Region. We will highlight that regional climate models have a large potential for enhancing the quality of climate projections in the presence of complex orography and in the proximity of coastal areas.
Authors: Sandro Calmanti (ENEA, Italy), Melanie Davies (IC3, Spain), Peter Schmidt (PIK, Germany), Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA, Italy)
EGU 2013 - Continuing and developing the engagement with Mediterranean stakeholders in the CLIM-RUN project
Key CLIM-RUN stages
- Stage setting (complete)
- first stakeholder workshops (May-Nov 2011)
- Mapping the issues (complete)
- perception and data needs questionnaires
- Iterative consultation and collaboration (ongoing)
- Consolidation and collective review/assessment
- second stakeholder workshops (April-June 2013)
- Going forward: synthesis and recommendations
- final workshop and end of project (February 2014)
Authors: Clare Goodess and the CLIM-RUN CET & SET
EGU 2013 - Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).
At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. The final results include climate products developed by climate experts through the analysis of climate observations and scenarios (e.g. standard indices of extreme precipitations and droughts, consecutive days of heavy rain, mean sea level pressure) and risk-based maps supplied by environmental risk experts to facilitate the definition of adaptation strategies (e.g. sea-level rise/storm surge risk maps with the surface of receptor lost; drought risk maps with the percentage of suffering agricultural areas).
Authors: Gallina CMCC, Torresan CMCC, Giannini CMCC, Rizzi CMCC, Gualdi CMCC, Ballucci CMCC, Giorgi ICTP, Critto CMCC, Marcomini CMCC
Until today’s Tunisia, there is little communication between generators of meteorological or climatological data and stakeholders in the tourism sector. However: -A recent survey shows that professionals in the tourism sector are aware of the importance of integrating relevant climate information in their tourism management and development strategies. -Tunisia has expertise in the field of meteorology and climatology which meets the demand of the tourism sector in relevant climate information. The program CLIM RUN has created a framework allowing the introduction of a climate service in the Tunisian tourism sector. It identified the needs of the sector in climate information as well as examined together with specialized services and trained researchers the possibility of responding to these needs. The "GREVACHOT“ research unit based at the University of Tunis and partner of the CLIM RUN program has developed one of the products for which great demand was formulated by tourism stakeholders: this is tourism climate comfort index (tci) at regional and local scales. We present here : - The Tunisian experience in identifying climate information needs of the tourism sector, -- The approach method to the development, study, mapping of ICT and results.
Authors: Latifa HENIA, Zouhaier HLAOUI - Université de Tunis, FSHS, UR "GREVACHOT"
EGU 2013 - Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios?
Solar radiation data for users
- Energy production and energy efficency
- Agriculture planning
- Urban heat Island
- Surface Energy Budget
Authors: M. Petitta - ENEA, M. Castelli - EURAC, S. Calmanti - ENEA
Wild fire case study objectives
This case study focuses on the analysis of the climate information required in areas where forest fires represent a major hazard through organisation of interaction strategies (mainly workshops) with relevant stakeholders.
Authors: C. Giannakopoulos (NOA, Greece), V. Kotroni (NOA, Greece), K. Lagouvardos ((NOA, Greece), E. Korakaki (WWF, Greece), M. Hatzaki (NOA, Greece), V. Tenentes (NOA, Greece), A. Roussos (NOA, Greece), A. Karali (NOA, Greece), C.M. Goodess (CRU, UK)