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Public Deliverables

This section contains the public deliverables (PU) produced by CLIM-RUN consortium and already approved by the EU revisers. Deliverables meant for other programme participants (PP), that do not have sensible data, already approved by the EU revisers are also included in this section.

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Records: 44

D1.1: Report on the CLIM-RUN Protocol

The Clim-Run project aims at developing a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc). Differently from current approaches, Clim-Run has developed a bottom-up protocol directly involving stakeholders early in the process with the aim of identifying well defined needs at the regional and local scale. The improved modeling and downscaling tools will then be used to optimally respond to these sector-specific climate information needs.

Authors: N. Rousset, C. Goodess, S. Somot, G. Dubois, P. Ruti

D1.2: Web portal and data transfer guide

An “ad hoc” web section has been created within CLIM-RUN project website with the aim to disseminate to the stakeholders and to public at large the results of the many initiatives and workshops held by the Climate Expert Team (CET) (WP2-3) and the Stakeholder Expert Team (SET) (WP4-WP8) in the various sectors of interest of the project: energy, tourism, prevention of wild fires, and integrated coastal management zones. At this aim the “Case Studies Portal” (link: http://www.climrun.eu/case-studies) was created with the aim to provide a quick access to the most significant results of the different case studies, through a visual and interactive approach.

Authors: Paolo Ruti, Orietta Casali, Matteo De Felice, Emanuela Caiaffa (ENEA) Nathalie Rousset (Plan Bleu)

D1.3: Future Impacts at the Case Study Level

The main objective of this deliverable is thus to describe, assess and analyze the potential impacts of climate variability and change at the case study level. An important effort has been made to use indicators and modalities of representation of the impacts useful for the stakeholders. In this way, the information delivered here are intended to support the implementation of adaptation measures at regional and local scales.

Authors: N. Rousset, S. Torresan, M. Davis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Ghislain Dubois

D1.4: D Recommendations

Here, we would like to discuss the recommendations for the development of a Mediterranean wide climate service network, and how the Clim-Run experience can provide some key elements.

Authors: P.M Ruti, H. Ravenel

D2.1: New Modeling Tools

Within the CLIMRUN project a strategy of bottom-up approach is chosen. This deliverable lits the possible new modeling tools which can be carried out and develop within three following institutes: CNRM (Centre National de Recherche Météorologiques, Météo-France, France), ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Tecnologies, Energy and the Environment) and ICTP International National Agency for Theoretical Physics, Italy). Those new climate modelling tools can be developed to support the targeted requested climate information for the different case studies such as tourism, forest fire, energy over different location around the Mediterranean area. Depending on the stakeholders needs, the choice of new modelling design will be implemented.

Authors: Clotilde Dubois, Samuel Somot (METEO-FRANCE)

D2.2: Report on ongoing simulations

Within the CLIM-RUN project will make use of the results from previous (ENSEMBLES, CIRCE, CECILIA, ACQWA) and new (CMIP5, COMBINE, CORDEX) climate change and prediction projects. The intention is to provide science advancements for the delivery of climate information. This deliverable, which is part of Task 2.1, lists some results from these datasets relevant to the Mediterranean region. These results are expected to support the targeted requested climate information for the different case studies such as tourism, forest fire, energy over different locations around the area. Different choices of time scales and data sets are illustrated depending on the stakeholder needs. The deliverable is linked to the milestones 4 and 5, which lists the available datasets for three types of simulations: the centennial scenario in the CMIP5 context and related projects, the decadal forecasts in the CMIP5 context and related projects and finally the regional climate change scenario in the context of CORDEX and related projects.

Authors: F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Bellucci

D2.3: Development of new regional modeling tools

Within the CLIM-RUN project three modelling partners are developing new modelling tools for application to specific targeted simulations in support of the CLIM-RUN case studies. The three partners are: CNRM (Centre National de Recherche Météorologiques, Météo-France, France), ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment, Italy) and ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy). Some of the model developments derived directly from the needs expressed by the stakeholders involved in the case studies and emerged after the first round of stakeholder workshops. All these new modelling tools are based on the use of pre-existing and enhanced regional Climate Models (RCMs) capable of reaching relatively high horizontal resolution over the Mediterranean area.

Authors: Filippo Giorgi, Alessandro Dell’Aquilla and Samuel Somot

D2.4: Assessment of climate variability and climate change in the Mediterranean region

Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin is a subject which, in recent years, has received an increasing amount of interest within the international climate science community. This interest stems from the growing amount of evidence identifying the Mediterranean as a particularly vulnerable region with respect to climate-related changes in (among other aspects) water availability and frequency of extreme weather events (including heat waves, floods and land-slides). Research on Mediterranean climate dynamics has been recently fuelled by a number of initiatives, including both international and European-funded projects. The international initiatives include the MedCLIVAR project (endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]) on climate variability, the MEDEX project (endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization) on highimpact cyclones, the HyMex programme, focusing on the hydrological cycle, and the MedCORDEX framework on regional climate modelling over the Mediterranean domain, contributing to the wider WCRP-sponsored CORDEX program.

Authors: A. Bellucci, A. Dell’Aquila, C. Dubois, S. Somot, C. Giannakopoulos

D2.5: Decadal prediction capabilities

The Mediterranean region is projected to be among the most heavily affected by the 21st century greenhouse gas induced climate change, with significant regional warming and drying by the end of the century (e.g. Mariotti et al., 2008; Mariotti et al, 2013). On the shorter term, a few decades into the future, decadal variability of both internal and external origin, will largely determine the conditions to be experienced in the region, as already seen over the course of the 20th century (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012). A main question and one of great societal relevance, is to which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally forced changes and for how long. In view of the seemingly robust climate change signal in the Mediterranean region, projected external forcing constitutes a source of decadal predictability for this region. What remains to be understood is the degree of predictability of regional internal decadal variability and its impact on our ability to predict future changes a few years ahead.

Authors: Virginie Guemas - IC3, Javier García-Serrano - IC3, Annarita Mariotti - USMD, Paco Doblas-Reyes - IC3, Louis-Philippe Caron - IC3

D3.1: Availability and Characteristics of Data Sources

In this deliverable, observational, model and sector relevant data are collected and presented. These data will be added to the CLIM-RUN data repository to support the case studies analysis and to assess new modelling tools.

Authors: Yiota Gregoriou, Christina Oikonomou, Richard Cornes, Christos Giannakopoulos, Maria Dolores Frias and Manfred A. Lange

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